最新报告：集装箱航运准点率仅为三分之一

Global container shipping schedule reliability fell for a third consecutive month in August, with just 29% of vessels arriving on time as disruption on the Far East–Europe trade pushed performance close to pandemic-era lows, according to analyst Xeneta.

The 4-percentage-point month-to-month decline from July’s 33% on-time performance was accompanied by a sharp increase in the average delay, which rose from 4.2 days to 5.1 days. 

Xeneta said the combination of more late vessels and longer delays makes a sustained recovery harder as shippers approach fourth-quarter contracting and the peak season surrounding China’s late-September and early-October holidays.

Far East–Europe at 6% on time

The Far East–Europe trade was the most severely affected major lane in August. On-time performance fell 10 percentage points to 6%, while average delay reached 8.2 days, reliability levels Xeneta said had not been seen since the height of the Covid-19 supply-chain disruption in late 2021.

The lane continues to contend with the operational effects of the Red Sea crisis, including longer diverted routings around Africa even as major carriers return to the Suez Canal route, as well as North European port congestion, bigger ships requiring longer berth stays and weather-related disruptions. Four consecutive typhoons in China compounded those pressures, leaving 1.1 million TEUs of cargo held at anchorage across Ningbo, Shanghai and Yantian in the week after Typhoon Saudel passed, Xeneta said.

Those backlogs are likely to ripple into downstream ports in Europe and North America in the coming weeks as delayed Asia departures translate into late arrivals and disrupted vessel rotations.

South America and Africa also weaken

Schedule reliability deteriorated sharply on several other trades in August:

Trade	August on-time performance	Monthly change
Africa	21%	Down 15 percentage points
South America East Coast	34%	Down 12 percentage points
Far East–Europe	6%	Down 10 percentage points

South America East Coast average delays doubled to 5.4 days. Xeneta attributed part of the deterioration to a three-day pilotage strike at Argentinean ports early in August, which increased berth-arrival delays at ports including Buenos Aires and led some carriers to divert cargo through Montevideo and Itajai. The disruption coincided with the end of Argentina’s key export season and the approach of Brazil’s peak export period.

Despite the decline, South America East Coast remained among Xeneta’s three most reliable trade lanes, behind South America West Coast, which recorded 37% on-time performance.

Carrier performance gap narrows as leaders fall

Ten of the 12 largest carriers suffered lower reliability in August, with Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, PIL, HMM, Wan Hai and Yang Ming reaching 12-month lows, Xeneta said. The gap between the highest- and lowest-performing carriers narrowed from 48 percentage points in July to 45 percentage points in August, but primarily because higher-performing carriers lost ground.

Maersk remained the top performer at 51% on time, despite a 6-percentage-point decline. Its Gemini Cooperation partner Hapag-Lloyd fell 7 percentage points to 46%, its weakest result since before the alliance began operating in February 2025. CMA CGM dropped 7 points to 33%, while Cosco fell 6 points to 22%.

Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd nevertheless contained the severity of their delays, both averaging 2.8 days late. By contrast, HMM and Yang Ming saw their average delays increase by 2.3 days and 3.1 days, respectively, reaching roughly nine to 10 days.

The broad decline means shippers cannot rely on a carrier’s overall reputation alone when making tender decisions, Xeneta said, arguing that procurement teams should assess performance by port pair and service rather than carrier brand.

Africa remains most congested region

Africa retained its position as the world’s most congested container-shipping region in August, with vessels waiting an average of 3.3 days, ahead of the Middle East at 2.3 days and Southeast Asia at 1.7 days. Xeneta characterized the congestion in Africa and the Middle East as structural, with port-development capacity failing to keep pace with demand.

Northeast Asia ranked fifth by average waiting time, at 1.3 days, but had the third-highest congestion ratio, with 16% of vessels in a holding pattern on an average day. Ningbo’s average wait declined marginally to 2.8 days from 3 days in July, but the average daily number of ships at anchorage jumped 63%, from 39 to 63 vessels.

Holiday demand could tighten capacity

Xeneta said the combination of weak schedule reliability and China’s back-to-back Mid-Autumn Festival and Golden Week holidays could put further pressure on capacity and equipment availability. The Mid-Autumn Festival runs Sept. 25-27, followed by Golden Week from Oct. 1-7, creating 10 days of factory closures and concentrating bookings into the weeks before the holidays.

Slow steaming, extended anchorage waits, longer berth stays and port omissions also reduce the effective capacity available to shippers, even when nominal vessel capacity remains unchanged. 

With Far East–Europe reliability at 6% and disruptions also affecting Far East–North America operations, Xeneta said shippers face the prospect of delayed capacity and rising freight rates heading into the fourth quarter.

Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here.

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