Houston Freight Tightened Fast: No. 2 in 2 Weeks

Houston freight tightened fast — from one of the loosest markets to No. 2 for tightening in under two weeks. This freight market update breaks down tender rejections above 14%, spot rates at 342, diesel at $6.54, intermodal strength and what tropical storm risk could mean for supply chains. Key takeaways: volume is up week over week but still choppy, ocean imports may have already peaked, Houston is turning outbound-heavy again, and fuel spreads are creating a real cost story for carriers. If you run trucks, buy transportation or watch capacity, this is the setup heading into peak season.

Houston’s truckload market flipped from one of the softest in the country to the second-tightest of 135 markets tracked by FreightWaves SONAR in less than two weeks, driven by a sharp spike in tender rejections and surging spot rates. The reversal is a warning signal for shippers and brokers with outbound freight exposure in the region that procurement conditions can shift rapidly even in a broadly fragile national market.

Tender rejections in Houston hit 10.47% as of Tuesday, September 22 — still below the national average but up nearly 3 percentage points from the prior week and 6 points year over year. Just 90 days earlier, Houston rejections had been falling steadily, declining roughly 8% over that stretch. The market’s Key Market Trend Index registered 6.85, reflecting what SONAR data describes as extreme tightening.

“It went from one of the loosest markets in the group to one of the tightest markets in the country in under 2 weeks,” said Julie Van de Kamp. “It’s now showing number 2 of our 135 markets based on the tightening trends.”

The clearest pressure point is in spot rates. Van Trac spot conditions out of Houston rose 37% week over week, while tender volume climbed nearly 2% over the same period. Van de Kamp noted the market continues to run outbound heavy, a dynamic that typically pushes rates higher as available capacity tightens on exit lanes.

Nationally, the broader market remains what Van de Kamp called “fragile.” The Sonar STVI volume index rose 12.9% week over week as of September 22, but the gain followed a lumpy, up-and-down pattern since Labor Day. National tender rejections, as measured by the STRI, held above 14% — up about 1 percentage point month over month — while national van spot rates reached $3.42, a 4.27% increase month over month. Intermodal contract rates climbed to $1.73, up roughly 8% month over month, as volume continued shifting from road to rail.

Fuel costs add another layer of pressure on carriers. The diesel truck stop price stood at $6.54 per gallon on September 22, near a 52-week high, up sharply from roughly $4.90 at the July low. The DOE price reached $6.29, just above the prior 52-week high of $6.28. WTI crude sat at $92 per barrel. Van de Kamp flagged the retail-to-wholesale spread — currently about $1.10 and widening — as the most significant fuel data point, noting that carriers able to purchase at wholesale prices retain a meaningful cost advantage for now.

On the import side, the IOTI ocean tender volume index fell to roughly flat, down about 1% week over week, raising the question of whether the front-loaded import surge that characterized earlier months of the year has peaked. Intermodal volume, by contrast, held positive at up about 2% week over week. Van de Kamp said the national picture remains one where capacity is gradually exiting the market but demand has yet to generate sustained upward pressure — leaving the market balanced on a knife’s edge heading into peak season.

• Houston jumped from one of the loosest to the No. 2 tightest market of 135 tracked in under two weeks, with van spot rates up 37% week over week.
• National tender rejections remain above 14% and van spot rates hit $3.42, up 4.27% month over month, as the broader market stays fragile heading into peak season.
• Diesel prices are near 52-week highs at $6.54 per gallon, with a $1.10 retail-to-wholesale spread offering a short-term cost advantage to carriers buying at wholesale.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.